In the contentious campaign leading up to the
2008 presidential elections, Hillary Clinton
was considered a front-runner for the Democratic Party. At the time, Barack
Obama was still a junior Senator from Illinois, and while his support grew in
leaps and bounds he initially had trouble battling the politically experienced former
First Lady on the campaign trail. After Obama pulled ahead in delegate votes, Clinton
suspended her campaign and endorsed Obama's run. After winning the election, Obama
appointed Clinton to the office of Secretary of
State.
In the current campaign, it is generally
taken as a done-deal that only Obama is running, and that any challenging Democratic
candidate will serve only to take votes away from the incumbent. This is more than just
a theory; in 1991, Ross Perot successfully entered his name into
the Presidential race and managed to achieve almost 19% of the popular vote, an
extraordinary number for a third-party candidate. William Clinton's
majority win of 43% is often seen as the direct result of Perot's involvement; if Perot
had not won his 19%, incumbent George H.W. Bush would likely have
won a second term.
Additionally, Hillary Clinton has stated
that she is not interested in running again. In a March 2011 interview with CNN's
Wolf Blitzer, she said:
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...I am doing what I want to do right now and I
have no intention or any idea even of running again. I'm going to do the best I can at
this job for the next two
years.
At that time, she had
no intention of running. If she enters the race as a surprise candidate, it is possible
and even likely that she will split the vote between her and Obama, and their campaign
battles will weaken his position while allowing Republican candidates to focus on their
own campaigns instead of battling Obama. For the Democratic Party, it would be a bad
idea, unless Obama suspended his own campaign, which is very
unlikely.
In summary, superdelegates will cast their votes
for Obama because he is, at the moment, the only Democratic candidate. If Hilary Clinton
were to enter the race, they would still be best served to support Obama so as not to
split the vote.
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